Blame the bankers? An empirical study of cyclical credit quality

Abstract

We test the hypothesis that credit quality deteriorates during credit booms. The test case is a pronounced cycle in connection with a banking crisis, ranked among the most extreme in international studies. A unique data set allows us to rate household borrowers during the cycle, and aggregate the ratings to the macroeconomic level. The post-crisis period is also studied to find changes in credit quality.

The method reveals significant variation in average ratings of household borrowers during the crisis cycle and its aftermath. We find that ‘point-in-time’ ratings, calculated with realised data, do not indicate deterioration in average credit quality during the credit boom. In contrast, ‘through-the-cycle’ ratings, constructed by using data that is cleaned from cyclical variation, behave in accordance with the hypothesis. By all measures used, a significant improvement in the average quality of borrowers is found during the post-crisis period.

Citation

Herrala, R. (2009), "Blame the bankers? An empirical study of cyclical credit quality", Choi, J.J. and Papaioannou, M.G. (Ed.) Credit, Currency, or Derivatives: Instruments of Global Financial Stability Or crisis? (International Finance Review, Vol. 10), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 47-64. https://doi.org/10.1108/S1569-3767(2009)0000010005