Bank Income Smoothing During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from UK Banks

Abstract

Purpose: In this chapter, the author evaluates the association between bank loan loss provisions (LLP) and the pre-provisions earnings of UK banks during the first-wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. A positive co-movement between the two variables indicates income smoothing.

Methodology: Graphical analysis, correlation analysis and regression analysis are used to assess the relationship between income smoothing and bank provisions among UK systemic banks.

Findings: The findings show that LLP have an inverted V-shaped property during the first-wave of COVID-19 pandemic. LLP reached its highest level at the peak of the pandemic in Q2 2020 and declined in the subsequent quarters. The regression results show that LLP are positively related to pre-provisions earnings during the pandemic quarters and in the pre-pandemic quarters. The relationship is stronger in the pandemic quarters and indicates higher income smoothing in the pandemic quarters. The correlation results also show a strong positive correlation between bank provisions and pre-provisions earnings in the pandemic period. In the individual bank analysis, three of the four systemic banks exhibit higher income smoothing during the pandemic quarters.

Implication: UK systemic banks engaged in earnings management as a coping mechanism to mitigate the effect of the pandemic on their profits.

Need for the study/originality: This chapter is the first to provide a preliminary analysis of income smoothing among banks during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Citation

Ozili, P.K. (2022), "Bank Income Smoothing During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from UK Banks", Grima, S., Özen, E. and Boz, H. (Ed.) The New Digital Era: Other Emerging Risks and Opportunities (Contemporary Studies in Economic and Financial Analysis, Vol. 109B), Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 127-139. https://doi.org/10.1108/S1569-37592022000109B008