FX Hedging Using Forwards and ‘Premium-Free’ Options

Abstract

Purpose

This chapter aims to find an optimal way to hedge foreign exchange exposures on three main currency pairs being the EURUSD, EURGBP and EURJPY. Furthermore, it analyses the risk level of each portfolio together with its kurtosis level. This chapter also looks into the relationship between the EURUSD portfolios and the VIX level.

Methodology/approach

This study is based on a back-testing analysis over a period of seven years starting in January 2007 and ending in December 2014. Two main Foreign Exchange Premium-Free strategies were structured using the Bloomberg Terminal. These were the ‘At-Expiry Forward Extra’ and the ‘Window Forward Extra’. Portfolios were created using FX options strategies, FX spot and FX forwards. The EURUSD portfolios were also analysed and compared with the VIX level in order to see whether volatility has a direct effect on the outcome of the strategies. The statistical significance of the difference between returns of portfolios was analysed using a paired sample t-test. Finally, the histogram and distribution curve of each portfolio were created and plotted in order to provide a more visual analysis of returns.

Findings

It was found that the optimal strategies in all cases were the FX option strategies. The portfolios’ risk was analysed and indicated that optimal portfolios do not necessarily derive the lowest risk. It was also found that with a high VIX level, the forward contract was the most beneficial whilst the option strategy benefited from a low VIX level. When testing for statistical significance between returns of different portfolios, in most cases, the difference in returns between portfolios resulted to be statistically insignificant. Although some similarities were noticed in distribution curves, these differed from the normal distribution. When analysing the kurtosis levels, it is found that such levels differed from that of a normal distribution which has a kurtosis level of 3. Interpretation of such histograms, distribution curves and the kurtosis analysis was explained.

Citation

Caruana, J.M. (2016), "FX Hedging Using Forwards and ‘Premium-Free’ Options", Contemporary Issues in Bank Financial Management (Contemporary Studies in Economic and Financial Analysis, Vol. 97), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 37-71. https://doi.org/10.1108/S1569-375920160000097007