Reducing Bias in Hierarchical Forecasting

Abstract

This paper presents a mathematical programming model to reduce bias for both aggregate demand forecasts and lower echelon forecasts comprising a hierarchical forecasting system. Demand data from an actual service operation are used to illustrate the model and compare its accuracy with a standard approach for hierarchical forecasting. Results show that the proposed methodology outperforms the standard approach.

Citation

Utley, J. (2014), "Reducing Bias in Hierarchical Forecasting", Advances in Business and Management Forecasting (Advances in Business and Management Forecasting, Vol. 10), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 131-141. https://doi.org/10.1108/S1477-407020140000010019