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Forecasting the Net Asset Value of PRWCX

Advances in Business and Management Forecasting

ISBN: 978-1-78441-209-8

ISSN: 1477-4070

Publication date: 12 November 2014

Abstract

This research examines the use of a number of time series model structures of a moderate allocation mutual fund, PRWCX. PRWCX was rated as the top fund in its category during the past five years. The fund invests at least 50% of its total assets that the fund manager believes that have above average potential for capital growth. The remaining assets are generally invested in convertible securities, corporate and government debt bank loans, and foreign securities. Forecasting the total NAV of such a moderate allocation mutual fund, composed of an extremely large number of investments, requires a method that produces accurate results. These models are exponentially smoothing (single, double, and Winter’s Method), trend models (linear, quadratic, and exponential) are Box-Jenkins models.

Keywords

Citation

Lawrence, K.D., Kleinman, G.K. and Lawrence, S.M. (2014), "Forecasting the Net Asset Value of PRWCX", Advances in Business and Management Forecasting (Advances in Business and Management Forecasting, Vol. 10), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Bingley, pp. 19-36. https://doi.org/10.1108/S1477-407020140000010001

Publisher

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Emerald Group Publishing Limited

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