Prediction Markets as a Forecasting Tool

Abstract

Internal prediction markets draw on the wisdom of crowds, gathering knowledge from a broad range of information sources and embedding that knowledge in the stock price. This chapter examines the use of internal prediction markets as a forecasting tool, including as a stand-alone, and as a supplement to forecasting tools. In addition, this chapter examines internal prediction market applications used in real-world settings and issues associated with the accuracy of internal prediction markets.

Citation

O'Leary, D.E. (2011), "Prediction Markets as a Forecasting Tool", Lawrence, K.D. and Klimberg, R.K. (Ed.) Advances in Business and Management Forecasting (Advances in Business and Management Forecasting, Vol. 8), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 169-184. https://doi.org/10.1108/S1477-4070(2011)0000008014