Forecasting the 2008 U.S. presidential election using options data

Abstract

The 2008 U.S. presidential election was of great interest nationally and internationally. Interest in the 2008 election was sufficient to drive a $2.8 million options market by a U.K.-based company INTRADE. The options in this market are priced as European style fixed return options (FRO). In 2008, the Security and Exchanges Commission approved, and both the American Stock Exchange and the Chicago Board Options Exchange began to trade FROs. Little research is available on trading in FROS because these markets are very new. This chapter uses the INTRADE options market data to construct exponential smoothing forecasts, which are then compared under a hypothetical trading strategy. The trading returns indicate that this market is relatively efficient at least in the short term but that because of the all or nothing payout structure of a FRO, there may exist small arbitrage opportunities.

Citation

Keller, C.M. (2010), "Forecasting the 2008 U.S. presidential election using options data", Lawrence, K.D. and Klimberg, R.K. (Ed.) Advances in Business and Management Forecasting (Advances in Business and Management Forecasting, Vol. 7), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 173-182. https://doi.org/10.1108/S1477-4070(2010)0000007015