Forecasting using internal markets, Delphi, and other approaches: The knowledge distribution grid

Abstract

Much forecasting is done by experts, who either make the forecasts themselves or who do opinion research to gather such forecasts. This is consistent with previous knowledge management research that typically has focused on directly soliciting knowledge from those with greater recognized expertise.

However, recent research has found that in some cases, electronic markets, whose participants are not necessarily individual experts, often have been found to be more effective aggregated forecasters. This suggests that knowledge management take a similar tact and expand the perspective to include internal markets. As a result, this chapter extends the use of internal markets to be included in knowledge management, thus expanding the base of knowledge to gathering from nonexperts.

In particular, in this paper I examine the use of human expertise and opinion as a basis to forecast a range of different events. This chapter uses a “knowledge distribution grid” as a basis for understanding which kind of forecasting tool is appropriate for particular forecasting situations. We examine a number of potential sources of forecast information, including knowledge acquisition, Delphi techniques, and internal markets. Each is seen as providing forecasting information for unique settings.

Citation

O’Leary, D.E. (2009), "Forecasting using internal markets, Delphi, and other approaches: The knowledge distribution grid", Lawrence, K.D. and Klimberg, R.K. (Ed.) Advances in Business and Management Forecasting (Advances in Business and Management Forecasting, Vol. 6), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 157-172. https://doi.org/10.1108/S1477-4070(2009)0000006010