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Model Switching and Model Averaging in Time-Varying Parameter Regression Models

Bayesian Model Comparison

ISBN: 978-1-78441-185-5

ISSN: 0731-9053

Publication date: 19 November 2014

Abstract

This paper investigates the usefulness of switching Gaussian state space models as a tool for implementing dynamic model selection (DMS) or averaging (DMA) in time-varying parameter regression models. DMS methods allow for model switching, where a different model can be chosen at each point in time. Thus, they allow for the explanatory variables in the time-varying parameter regression model to change over time. DMA will carry out model averaging in a time-varying manner. We compare our exact method for implementing DMA/DMS to a popular existing procedure which relies on the use of forgetting factor approximations. In an application, we use DMS to select different predictors in an inflation forecasting application. We find strong evidence of model switching. We also compare different ways of implementing DMA/DMS and find forgetting factor approaches and approaches based on the switching Gaussian state space model to lead to similar results.

Keywords

Acknowledgements

Acknowledgments

This research was supported by the ESRC under grant RES-062-23-2646. Gary Koop is a Fellow at the Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.

Citation

Belmonte, M. and Koop, G. (2014), "Model Switching and Model Averaging in Time-Varying Parameter Regression Models", Bayesian Model Comparison (Advances in Econometrics, Vol. 34), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Bingley, pp. 45-69. https://doi.org/10.1108/S0731-905320140000034004

Publisher

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Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2014 Emerald Group Publishing Limited