We document how inflation expectations evolved in the United States during the fall of 1933 using narrative evidence from historical news accounts and the forecasts of contemporary business analysts. We find that inflation expectations, after rising substantially during the spring of 1933, moderated in the fall in response to mixed messages from the Roosevelt Administration. The narrative accounts and our econometric model connect the dramatic swings in output growth in 1933 – the rapid recovery in the spring and the setback in the fall – to these sudden movements in inflation expectations.
The views in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or its staff. We thank Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, Arthi Rabbane, Morgan Smith, and Max Xie for exceptional research assistance.
Jalil, A.J. and Rua, G. (2017), "Inflation Expectations in the U.S. in Fall 1933", Research in Economic History (Research in Economic History, Vol. 33), Emerald Publishing Limited, Bingley, pp. 139-169. https://doi.org/10.1108/S0363-326820170000033005
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