US Monetary Policy and Spillovers to Select EMEs: An Episodic Analysis^*

Abstract

This chapter assesses the volatility spillover from US monetary policy consequent upon the onset of three episodes primarily engineered by the US Fed, namely quantitative easing 1, taper tantrum and balance sheet normalization (BSN) to select emerging market economies (Brazil, India, Russia, South Africa and Turkey) considering around six months pre- and post-occurrence of these events. AR(k)-GARCH (p,q) framework has been used to assess the spillover effect influencing the return of the financial assets and trekking to their volatility segregated as news and persistence effect across markets and economies under study. The authors find that at the overall level, news impact significantly enhanced volatility of bond and currency markets, however, less impact was observed owing to the onset of BSN announcement as markets had factored the news through the well-articulated forward guidance of the Fed.

Citation

Sahoo, S., Shankar, S. and Anthony, J.M. (2020), "US Monetary Policy and Spillovers to Select EMEs: An Episodic Analysis^*", Biswas, R. and Michaelides, M. (Ed.) Financial Issues in Emerging Economies: Special Issue Including Selected Papers from II International Conference on Economics and Finance, 2019, Bengaluru, India (Research in Finance, Vol. 36), Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 67-97. https://doi.org/10.1108/S0196-382120200000036004