Cold season precipitation has increased during recent decades, particularly over the mountainous terrain east of the Aral Sea. Climate models also project increases (5−20%) in winter precipitation during the 21st century; however, several models suggest decreases (0 to −15%) in precipitation during summer. Despite the increases in cold season precipitation, the large increases in temperature (4°C) during the 21st century are likely to cause increased evaporation which could exacerbate the regional water budget deficit. This may constrain the water supply in the region, particularly during summer and autumn when water demand is highest. To fully understand the impacts of future climate change on regional water resources, hydrologic models that include anthropogenic management of water will be required.
Miller, J., Rangwala, I. and Ghatak, D. (2012), "Potential Climate and Hydrological Changes in the Aral Sea Region", Edelstein, M., Cerny, A. and Gadaev, A. (Ed.) Disaster by Design: The Aral Sea and its Lessons for Sustainability (Research in Social Problems and Public Policy, Vol. 20), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Bingley, pp. 53-64. https://doi.org/10.1108/S0196-1152(2012)0000020013Download as .RIS
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