Labor force transitions are empirically examined using Current Population Survey (CPS) data matched across months from 1996 to 2012 for Hispanics, African-Americans, and whites. Transition probabilities are contrasted prior to the Great Recession and afterward. Estimates indicate that minorities are more likely to be fired as business cycle conditions worsen. Estimates also show that minorities are usually more likely to be hired when business cycle conditions are weak. During the Great Recession, the odds of losing a job increased for minorities although cyclical sensitivity of the transition declined. Odds of becoming re-employed declined dramatically for blacks, by 2–4%, while the probability was unchanged for Hispanics.
Couch, K.A., Fairlie, R. and Xu, H. (2018), "Racial Differences in Labor Market Transitions and the Great Recession", Transitions through the Labor Market (Research in Labor Economics, Vol. 46), Emerald Publishing Limited, pp. 1-53. https://doi.org/10.1108/S0147-912120180000046001Download as .RIS
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