An e-Delphi experiment of quality of equity predictions in online groups

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to present the results of experiments with groups making online group stock price predictions and include the research process and a summary of the preliminary results. The overall objectives of the study are to assess the effect of individual and remote group decision-making approaches to stock price predictions, to assess whether a learning effect exists through the feedback loop of an e-Delphi process and to identify the underlying key mechanisms of the individual and of the group that influence the decision-making process.

Design/methodology/approach

The experiments consist of a pilot and a main run. The main run was performed with three lay groups (totaling 49 participants) and two expert groups (totaling ten financial analysts and other stock market professionals). The groups were benchmarked with actual market prices as well as with each other, over ten e-Delphi cycles (ten weeks). Each participant in the experiment was asked to provide an estimation of the movement (up or down) for one-week, one-month and three-month future periods for each share, as well as to enter a stock price prediction for a three-month period.

Findings

Although the pilot run has provided some indications that in certain situations and with careful group design, stock price predictions can be superior to the predictions of experts, the main experiment indicated a more differentiated picture and provided some information about the underlying decision-making process.

Originality/value

The paper presents influence factors and measures the impact of the group decision-making process of Internet communities focusing on stock trading, based on predicting share prices.

Citation

Endress, T. (2015), "An e-Delphi experiment of quality of equity predictions in online groups", Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, Vol. 7 No. 2, pp. 136-158. https://doi.org/10.1108/QRFM-05-2014-0014