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Kernel density estimation and hotspot mapping: Examining the influence of interpolation method, grid cell size, and bandwidth on crime forecasting

Timothy Hart (Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia)
Paul Zandbergen (Department of Geography, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA)

Policing: An International Journal

ISSN: 1363-951X

Publication date: 13 May 2014

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of user-defined parameters settings (e.g. interpolation method, grid cell size, and bandwidth) on the predictive accuracy of crime hotspot maps produced from kernel density estimation (KDE).

Design/methodology/approach

The influence of variations in parameter settings on prospective KDE maps is examined across two types of interpersonal violence (e.g. aggravated assault and robbery) and two types of property crime (e.g. commercial burglary and motor vehicle theft).

Findings

Results show that interpolation method has a considerable effect on predictive accuracy, grid cell size has little to no effect, and bandwidth as some effect.

Originality/value

The current study advances the knowledge and understanding of prospective hotspot crime mapping as it answers the calls by Chainey et al. (2008) and others to further investigate the methods used to predict crime.

Keywords

Acknowledgements

This paper is supported in part by Award 2009-IJ-CX-0022, Effects of Geocoding Quality on Predictive Crime Hotspot Mapping, from the National Institute of Justice.

Citation

Hart, T. and Zandbergen, P. (2014), "Kernel density estimation and hotspot mapping: Examining the influence of interpolation method, grid cell size, and bandwidth on crime forecasting", Policing: An International Journal, Vol. 37 No. 2, pp. 305-323. https://doi.org/10.1108/PIJPSM-04-2013-0039

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Publisher

:

Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2014, Emerald Group Publishing Limited

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