Thursday, December 28, 2017
Political legitimacy of leaders will be the focus of many of 2018’s elections
- High levels of disdain for political elites make the outcome of elections in Mexico and Brazil unusually uncertain.
- Italian voters will show whether there is a new wave to the Eurosceptic populism barely held at bay across the EU in 2016-17.
- Iran may work against US efforts to secure the reselection of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi in May’s Iraqi parliamentary elections.
- Religious parties are likely to make significant gains in Pakistan’s general election -- perhaps enough for them to play kingmaker.
- Voter apathy and lack of credible challengers will deny Egypt’s President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi a cogent popular mandate for his second term.
Two of the world’s three superpowers go to the polls in 2018, with voters in Russia and the United States being asked, in different ways, to pass judgement on their presidents.
There is little doubt that Vladimir Putin will be re-elected to his office, but achieving a target of a 70% vote share on 70% turnout will be critical to the legitimacy he seeks to orchestrate the succession to what will be his last term.
November’s US midterm elections are for the legislature, not the presidency, but will just as surely be a plebiscite on President Donald Trump and his unique stamp on US politics.
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald Group agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.