Rabat’s wins will harden Sahrawis’ independence drive

Significance

These developments are strengthening those segments within the Polisario Front (PF) -- the Sahrawi independence movement -- that are calling for intensified military efforts against Morocco. Meanwhile, Algeria remains steadfast in its support for the PF and is using the conflict to undermine the kingdom's regional influence.

Impacts

• Algeria's interest will lie in a prolonged conflict, which consumes Morocco's diplomatic bandwidth.
• French-Algerian ties will remain tense over the medium term because of Paris's support for Rabat on the Western Sahara.
• Any UN mediation efforts will struggle to achieve a breakthrough under current conflict dynamics.