Ethiopia-Somalia tension may fuel regional instability

Significance

This long-standing conflict has now fused with an escalating clash between Ethiopia and Somalia over Ethiopia’s promise to recognise Somaliland’s independence from Somalia in return for port access. The evolving crisis has significant potential to upset security dynamics in the Horn of Africa.

Impacts

• The African Union (AU) may face criticism for allowing a peacekeeping mission to become so politicised.
• The developments may fuel tensions in Somaliland, which could even create a risk that elections due by late 2024 could again be delayed.
• The issue may also generate tensions in Ethiopia’s Somali region, possibly even reigniting conflict there after years of relative calm.
• The developments will worsen overall insecurity in the region, and benefit Somali jihadist group al-Shabaab.