Brazil budget battles presage wider power struggles

Significance

While an executive branch significantly weaker than in previous decades has struggled to respond, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) is now pushing back. STF actions may somewhat increase transparency, but can do little to boost executive control over the budget.

Impacts

• The draft 2025 budget bill contains a record BRL39bn worth of mandatory (not including discretionary) amendments alone.
• Lula will seek to avoid direct confrontation with Congress in discussions about budgetary amendments.
• Congress’s reaction to STF attempts to increase transparency in its budgetary allocation may undermine the government’s legislative agenda.
• The legislative branch will likely continue to win power vis-a-vis the two other branches in the coming years.