Broken but not destroyed, Palestinian Hamas fights on

Significance

Hamas has suffered significant losses of leadership, personnel, infrastructure and capabilities. The group was also dealt a symbolic blow with the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, its political chief, and the purported killing of senior military leader Mohammed Deif. It is now exploiting its remaining bargaining chip, the hostages, to pressure Netanyahu to end the war.

Impacts

• Netanyahu’s far-right coalition allies will oppose a ceasefire deal that leaves Hamas standing.
• The Palestinian Authority faces severe economic and security challenges, raising the risk of West Bank instability.
• Having contained a recent escalation in tensions, Hezbollah and Israel will revert to regular exchanges of fire.
• Iran’s president appears to be prioritising the economy, curtailing Tehran’s readiness to take strong retaliatory action against Israel.