Eventual royal succession in Riyadh will be smooth

Significance

At the time, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud quickly postponed a scheduled trip to Japan. As King Salman's reign draws closer to its end, bin Salman has made sure that his pathway to leadership is clear. He has consolidated power and surrounds himself with loyal subjects in the palace, economy and society.

Impacts

• Bin Salman is unlikely to travel beyond 5-6 hours outside of the country, so he can return quickly if necessary.
• There will be no bold policy initiatives and no attempt to normalise relations with Israel until at least after the succession.
• The Allegiance Council, which is tasked with selecting and endorsing the next crown prince, will be primed to endorse bin Salman's choice.