Risk of wider Israel-Hezbollah war will recede for now

Significance

In a speech shortly after the attack, Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah suggested that there could be further retaliatory attacks, but he also stressed that the attack had restored deterrence. This strongly signalled that the current round of escalation between Israel and Hezbollah is likely over.

Impacts

• A new retaliatory Hezbollah attack could force Israel to respond more forcefully, risking escalation to a wider war.
• A widescale Israeli attack on Hezbollah areas could cause sectarian conflict in Lebanon.
• Hezbollah will reserve its rocket arsenal to use against a direct Israeli attack.
• Iran may yet retaliate following Israel's assassination of Hamas's political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31.