TPLF divisions threaten stability in Ethiopia’s Tigray

Significance

Getachew’s faction boycotted the congress and rejected the outcomes. The National Electoral Board of Ethiopia also stated that the congress was improperly organised and invalid.

Impacts

• Debretsion may try to force Getachew out of government, but it is unclear whether federal authorities would accept a replacement.
• Regional security actors have so far stayed neutral but may intervene if the stand-off persists, which could aggravate external relations.
• The unrest may accelerate the informalisation of even key economic sectors, including encouraging illicit practices such as gold smuggling.