German support for Ukraine could be at a crossroads

Significance

This is broadly consistent with the nature of the 2025 budget, which reportedly includes plans to halve support for Ukraine. The news came days after it was widely reported that Ukrainian actors were responsible for the 2022 attacks on the Nord Stream pipelines, which are partially owned by Germany.

Impacts

• At this stage, it is unlikely that the German government will deliver the highly-coveted Taurus air missiles to Ukraine.
• Should Germany's economic downturn persist, support for Ukraine could decline in western regions, where support has been much higher.
• A reduction in US support for Ukraine would increase calls in Europe to end the war.