State votes could alter direction of German politics

Significance

Opinion polls suggest that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) could win its first state election, with the party leading in the polls in Thuringia and Brandenburg. The anti-establishment Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), formed earlier this year, is also polling strongly.

Impacts

• Some parties could fall below the 5% parliamentary threshold, which would further boost the AfD and BSW seat tallies.
• News that Ukraine may be responsible for the Nord Stream pipeline attack could further strengthen anti-Ukrainian sentiment in Germany.
• Despite intra-government conflict, weak public support for all the coalition parties will likely prevent the coalition’s early collapse.