Congo-Rwanda truce may struggle for traction

Significance

This capped a series of recent M23 advances, and came just hours before a ceasefire agreed on July 30 in Luanda by the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda -- but without M23 participation -- came into effect at midnight on August 4.

Impacts

• Uganda’s efforts to defend its interests and maintain ties with both sides amid a war on its doorstep will continue to create controversy.
• A new Southern African peacekeeping force may struggle to make military progress and sustain support amid mounting costs and casualties.
• A limited de-escalation could help ease a mounting humanitarian crisis but real relief will require a more sustained detente.