Mediation by the Gulf states will increase

Significance

Qatar, Oman and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), have mediated numerous disputes in the last 20 years. Oman's activity is a reflection of its largely non-aligned foreign policy; the UAE uses it to advance national interests; and Qatar leverages its wealth and Islamist sympathies to bridge between Western states and militant groups.

Impacts

• Saudi Arabia will be encouraged to increase its mediation activities to boost its international credentials.
• Kuwait and Bahrain, distracted by their internal problems, will be less inclined to develop mediation roles.
• Financial rewards as part of the meditation efforts may result in Western accusations of encouraging corruption.