Ecuador drug challenges could erode Noboa support

Significance

Since Noboa launched a security crackdown in January, declaring an armed internal conflict and classifying 22 gangs and cartels as terrorist organisations, there have been several large seizures of drugs and arms. However, criminal networks show no sign of relenting: violence, having fallen at the start of year, is at record levels.

Impacts

• High levels of crime and drug-related violence will continue to deter investment and limit economic growth.
• Public debt, fiscal consolidation efforts and weak economic activity will limit the resources available to tackle drug trafficking.
• Failure to tackle drug trafficking with tougher security policies and prison sentences will strengthen calls for alternative approaches.