New insurgency may lead Niger's junta to negotiate

Significance

CNPC investments in drilling, refining and pipeline exports lie at the core of Niger’s economic growth prospects. However, in recent months armed groups rooted in Tuareg and Tubu ethnic communities have sabotaged pipeline infrastructure, kidnapped government officials and attacked security forces.

Impacts

• The junta may release former officials of the pre-coup government in response to rebel pressures.
• Ongoing diplomatic tensions with neighbouring Benin will restrict Niger’s ability to export oil.
• Escalating rebel activity could lead the junta to deepen partnerships with mercenaries from Russia, Turkey or elsewhere.