Consumer demand, especially for services, underpinned by a stronger labour market, drove the upswing. Exports stabilised, but investment slowed, held back by the housing market downturn. The official target of 5% growth for 2023 requires growth of 4.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, which should be easily achieved thanks to the low base of comparison. During the same period of 2022, nationwide COVID-19 outbreaks hampered activity.
- Consumer spending will gradually rebalance towards goods and away from services.
- The global electronics cycle is trending upward, which will support electronics producers and the broader industrial sector.
- Property is one of the main drags on the economy and has shown no signs of stabilising yet.