Erdogan’s new term brings more of the same in Turkey

Significance

The presidential and parliamentary elections held this month will define Turkey’s trajectory over the next five years and possibly even longer.

Impacts

• Erdogan may appoint new ministers in charge of the economy, the intelligence service (MIT) and possibly the interior.
• Turkey will likely experience a balance-of-payments crisis, owing to the severe lack of foreign exchange reserves.
• Erdogan will likely give approval to Sweden’s membership in NATO.
• Kilicdaroglu will come under pressure to resign as chairman of the Republican People’s Party (CHP).