Colombia political moves will complicate governability

Significance

The move comes amid disagreements over reform proposals and follows a cabinet reshuffle that reflected the divisions between President Gustavo Petro’s reformist government and the more conservative parties within its bloc. The situation marks the breakdown of government majorities in both houses of Congress.

Impacts

• The government, without its congressional majority, will have to make significant concessions to pass its legislative agenda.
• The Liberal Party looks likely to follow the Conservatives and the U in leaving the government’s congressional bloc.
• Another cabinet reshuffle will probably take place after October’s regional elections, as Petro seeks to adapt to new political realities.
• Fears that Petro will radicalise and issue emergency decrees are overblown, but he may become more populist as the regional elections near.