The UN will struggle with Libyan unification efforts

Significance

In February, Bathily announced a new initiative to hold parliamentary and presidential elections, which he is pushing to take place this year to end the political stalemate.

Impacts

• The UN and its Libya support mission could gradually lose credibility among the Libyan public if another initiative fails.
• The Russian paramilitary Wagner Group is likely banking on a failure of international efforts to dislodge it from positions in Libya.
• Egypt will use its influence and ties with Libyan groups to contain the cross-border impact of the Sudanese conflict.