Sudan faces serious risks of a protracted civil war

Significance

After months of tensions, the army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) clashed openly on April 15 in the capital, Khartoum, while less-reported violence proliferated across the country. A UN-backed temporary ceasefire yesterday allowed some respite to civilians trapped in their homes but was not fully observed.

Impacts

• The nature of this warfare means civilian casualties could rise sharply.
• International diplomacy may focus initially on humanitarian corridors and evacuations.
• Failure to reach a political settlement would sharply worsen economic prospects, with inflation likely to resurge.