‘Peace deals’ risk more violence in Sudan’s Darfur

Significance

RSF leader Lieutenant-General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo 'Himedti'’ has since mid-2022 promoted several reconciliation agreements between Arab and non-Arab tribes in Darfur. These have helped him expand RSF recruitment to non-Arab communities, and advertise himself as a peacemaker to sceptical opposition partners.

Impacts

• The collapse of Himedti's peace deals would hurt his image, but would not deter him from further co-optation and intimidation in Darfur.
• The return of Sudanese mercenaries from Libya could further militarise Darfur and exacerbate local conflicts.
• Western pressure to root out Russia’s Wagner group will escalate friction between the army and the RSF, Wagner’s main partner.