Iran’s opposition will struggle to gain global support

Significance

Pahlavi, the son of the deposed Shah of Iran, is taking advantage of the increasing isolation of Iran from Western governments. However, a coherent opposition grouping that has widespread support in Iran has yet to emerge, despite high-profile media campaigns by Pahlavi and other opposition figures.

Impacts

• The US Republican Party will continue to push the agenda of the People's Mujahedin of Iran (MEK) rather than Pahlavi’s position.
• The success of Tehran in containing the recent protests will reduce the scope for opposition groups to gain support from Western leaders.
• Non-Western governments, especially Russia and China, are unlikely to support Iran’s opposition groups.