Left-wing conflict boosts the right’s hopes in Spain

Significance

The law, introduced in August, contained loopholes which resulted in sexual offenders getting reduced sentences. The issue constitutes the biggest crisis between the parties thus far and threatens to weaken their prospects in May’s regional elections and the general election, which will likely take place in November or December.

Impacts

• Persistent tensions between the PSOE and UP could result in the general election happening earlier than December.
• With the PSOE in power in nine of the twelve regions that will hold elections in May, it has more to lose compared with the PP.
• A government involving Vox would reignite tensions between Madrid and Barcelona, and potentially boost support for Catalan independence.