EU-brokered Kosovo-Serbia deal will take time

Significance

Following tensions in late 2022, Belgrade and Prishtina have moved step-by-step toward a settlement. In late February Kurti and Vucic accepted an EU proposal which may lead to de facto recognition of Kosovo by Serbia in exchange for granting the local Serb community autonomy.

Impacts

• Nationalist backlash against a deal with Kosovo may destabilise Serbian domestic politics.
• A formal agreement between Belgrade and Prishtina may lead to Romania, Slovakia, Greece, Cyprus and Spain recognising Kosovo.
• The EU will closely monitor Prishtina and Belgrade's actions to ensure they do not backtrack on mutual commitments.
• The United States will play a central role in convincing the Kosovo government to grant Serbs autonomy.