Turkmen gas plans will balance China and Russia

Significance

Turkmen leaders rarely visit foreign countries. The visit to Beijing aimed at securing Chinese commitment to completing a new natural gas pipeline through Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. It paid off: the two leaders pledged to ramp up work on Line D and develop the Galkynysh field, the source of the increased amounts of gas being supplied.

Impacts

• Turkmenistan wants to implement infrastructure projects with Afghanistan, most notably the trans-Afghanistan pipeline to India.
• The war in Ukraine has revived talks on a trans-Caspian pipeline, although the August 2018 agreement gives all five littoral states a veto.
• Kyrgyzstan could begin importing Turkmen gas.
• Iran seeks Russian gas but due to geographic and infrastructure hurdles could accept Turkmen gas, given relatively stable bilateral ties.
• Against resistance, Russia will continue to push for a ‘gas union’ with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.