China's housing market will adjust to long-term change
Friday, March 17, 2023
Developer financing fell 25.9% last year. Property sales have slowed due to zero-COVID restrictions and consumer doubt about developers’ reliability, especially after some firms failed to deliver pre-sold homes. Commercial housing sales fell by 26.7% last year, and property developers defaulted on CNY150bn (USD22bn) of onshore bonds and USD30bn of offshore bonds.
- First-time homebuyers’ share of purchases will decline, replaced partially by relocations and home improvements.
- Residential services such as refurbishments, rental services and property management will grow.
- Room for growth still exists in cities and subdistricts with robust population inflows.
- Certain second-tier cities stand out, such as Hangzhou, Zhengzhou and Dongguan, and demand in first-tier cities will remain robust.
- Smaller cities are more likely to suffer from population outflows, vacant housing stock and downward price pressures.
Stay up to date
Sign up to the Expert Daily Briefings email alert and receive up-to-the-minute analysis of global events as they happen.
*If your university does not have access to Expert Briefings, visit our information page to find out more.