The White House needs the Pentagon on board on Taiwan

Significance

Burns stressed his belief that Xi may be dissuaded from meeting that deadline by Moscow’s military experience in Ukraine, adding to administration comments that an invasion of Taiwan is not imminent.

Impacts

• Comparisons between war in Ukraine and the potential for a Taiwan conflict will grow as Beijing considers lethal aid to Moscow.
• The administration will try to reduce the inflammatory impact of congressional visits to Taiwan using visits by its own officials.
• The threat of conflict in the Taiwan Strait will spur attempts to extend and strengthen the US alliance system in the region.