North Africa's water scarcity may reduce food exports

Significance

Since 2015, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia have increased their agricultural exports, due in large part to greater EU trade harmonisation. Despite the importance of farming to their economies, output is threatened by water scarcity resulting from low rainfall, groundwater depletion and rising demand from industry.

Impacts

• Reliance on grain imports will leave Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia vulnerable to commodity price fluctuations.
• North African countries will receive increased international aid and technical assistance to support efficient irrigation and agriculture.
• The EU, United Kingdom, Switzerland and Russia as well as regional importers will be affected by falling North African food availability.
• Alternative employment opportunities will be required if the agricultural sector sheds workers.