Western and Ukrainian policymakers have been watching for signs of a major Russian offensive that would satisfy President Vladimir Putin's desire to have something to show after a year. Some, including NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, say it has already begun, in a gradual rather than all-out form.
- Belarus’s president will resist sending in his army, but will let Russia’s military use his territory.
- A new push by either side is possible in Zaporizhia region, a vital but vulnerable link between Crimea and the east.
- Washington will maintain pressure on Beijing not to send Russia lethal weapons.