New Israeli policies will test closer Arab ties

Significance

Since 2020, normalisation of relations between the Arab states and Israel has gained pace through the Abraham Accords and Negev Forum. However, the new government's agenda regarding the holy sites at Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif and the West Bank -- two issues of profound importance to Arab populations -- threatens to stall and reverse this process.

Impacts

• The Negev Forum's foreign ministers summit is tentatively set for early 2023 in Morocco but could be delayed by diplomatic tensions.
• Trade between Israel and the Abraham Accords states is projected to exceed USD3.5bn in 2023.
• The IDF forecasts that Hezbollah will remain deterred in 2023 and so will refrain from escalatory measures.