Ethiopia’s peace may hold but remains fragile

Significance

Hundreds of federal police have entered Tigray’s capital, Mekelle, and a high-level federal delegation has visited to discuss next steps. Limited commercial flights to Tigray have resumed and large parts of the region have been reconnected to electricity, telecommunications and even banking services.

Impacts

• Although Eritrean forces have reportedly started to withdraw, this could still prove contentious and take time.
• The humanitarian situation will continue to improve, but some areas remain hard to reach for aid, particularly around the Eritrean border.
• Tensions in Amhara, and between Amharas and Oromos in the ruling party, will rise as pressure to resolve the land disputes increases.
• Charges against high-level Tigrayan leaders may be dropped and arrested Tigrayan leaders may be released.