Azerbaijan's assertiveness shifts Iran relationship

Significance

A recent downward trend in relations reflects deep-rooted grievances and diverging geopolitical trajectories, but Azerbaijan's growing assertiveness, helped by regional interloper Turkey, has left less room for resuming past methods of mutual accommodation.

Impacts

• Azerbaijani-Russian relations will remain tense as each distrusts the other's intentions in Karabakh.
• Relations between Armenia and Russia will remain strained.
• As the 'Middle Corridor' route gains attention, Turkey's engagement with Central Asia will increase.
• Ukraine-Iran ties will become more difficult as Tehran supplies Moscow with weapons.