Violence will threaten Nigeria's electoral process

Significance

The attacks illustrate broader security threats facing the national and state-level elections in February and March, respectively. These include separatism, widespread banditry, jihadist insurgencies and militant activities in areas such as the Niger Delta.

Impacts

• Large-scale military and police deployments are likely in vulnerable zones.
• The current dry season will improve insurgent mobility in some areas, making attacks more likely.
• Lower voter turnout in the south-east could harm Peter Obi's presidential campaign.
• Political party-related violence may intensify in the run-up to the polls.