Canada's provinces increase their challenges to Ottawa

Significance

Tensions between Ottawa and some provincial governments have been mounting in recent months. Alberta’s Sovereignty Act and Quebec’s ending of a parliamentary oath of allegiance to the British monarch have taken the headlines but more serious conflicts over healthcare costs may lie ahead.

Impacts

• Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will come under increasing pressure to compromise with provinces on funding health expenditure.
• The Supreme Court will rule on the Alberta Sovereignty Act before the end of 2024, and almost certainly deem it unconstitutional.
• If the NDP wins Alberta’s May elections it will revoke the Alberta Sovereignty Act, easing tensions with Ottawa.
• Premiers Doug Ford and Francois Legault, both recently re-elected, may well outlast Trudeau in office.
• Trudeau appears reluctant to challenge provincial legislation which would effectively change the Constitution.