Although growth has remained positive this year, it slowed in the second quarter and total output has not recovered from the collapse of economic activity in 2020. Poverty remains elevated and criminal violence has escalated. Growth is expected to climb next year but only moderately; the economic malaise will drag on.
- The opposition will try to capitalise on the weak economic conditions at the local elections, and leftist parties are likely to make gains.
- Widespread poverty and precarity will exacerbate crime, violence and security problems.
- Precarious and uncertain economic conditions will encourage further outward migration, especially to the United States.