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Belarus leader looks to survive and avoid war

Thursday, December 15, 2022

Significance

Lukashenka told Aleynik, promoted from deputy minister, that his job "won't be easy" -- an understatement given the problems facing Belarus. More reliant than ever on Russia economically because of Western sanctions, the government in Minsk has resisted pressure to enter the Ukraine war.

Impacts

  • Talk of Belarus entering the war may be Russian propaganda designed to divert Ukraine's war effort.
  • The Belarusian armed forces' willingness to fight a potentially losing war is unknown.
  • Belarus's offer to allow Ukrainian grain exports to cross its territory will meet with sceptism.

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